Before we start on financial market reaction to last week, please remember this: “In the last 100 years there has never been a two-term presidency come to an end that wasn’t followed, within 12 months, by a recession (thanks Raoul Pal, Grant Williams)” Well, last week the unthinkable happened: Donald Trump was voted in as […]
“Negative repercussions are becoming overwhelming”, was the cry from Deutsche Bank to the ECB this week. It came in response to the latter’s monetary policy of Bond market domination and negative interest rates. Broader Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets certainly agree. Rates are indeed rallying strongly. At a time where longer duration liquidity is tight and the ECB […]
The real news on an economic front seems to be the abandonment of QE in Europe and the effect this may have on the Euro, USD and market leading US stocks. But, frankly, who the hell cares? Right now, nothing else matters but the race to see who the next captain of the USS Titanic […]
Do you ever wonder why global monetary settings are still in crisis mode, despite the apparent “recovery”? If things are going so swimmingly, why is it that we cannot have a rate rise, anywhere. The answer is leverage and collateral: too much of one and not enough of the other. These days the style of […]
There can be no doubt recent bond and stock market turmoil can be blamed on global central banks leaving a “gap” in their announcement of new “shock and awe” stimulus. The stimulus that has worked so fantastically well to do nothing more than continue to bind a broken financial system together for fear of of […]
It’s official. A large number of investors have been trapped into thinking the financial future will be a repetition of the past. We understand their conviction. US stock markets are at all-time highs. Government bonds are at or near all-time highs. However, central banks worldwide remain at 0% interest rates or less because the situation […]
As we mused a couple of weeks ago, Brexit was just the tonic needed for central banks to turn the dial to 11 and keep it there. Market euphoria ensues, for now, even though it’s only a sniff as nothing has been implemented yet. Japan actually needs to pass laws before the right-hand side of […]
Let’s keep notes short and easy to read this weekend, shall we? Monday will reveal much. Volatility is back! Somewhere in the past three years (arguably earlier!) to the left of Lehman above was the start of the GFC. “Peak GFC” really started to heat up on March 16th 2008 with the purchase of Bear Stearns for $2 a share […]
Back by popular demand: Huxley vs Orwell. Let’s not forget Huxley taught Orwell French at Eton! Ok, there is a catch. We have a (BIS) Bank of International Settlement related (understood by few but affecting many) ready to send on account of its importance. Take this as a softener. Enjoy.
With so much going on in the world economy at the moment we thought that today we’d let some pictures tell a tale or two, followed by a little update on the latest measures our Central Bank leaders have cooked up at their Spinal Tap 11, School of Economics. It looks like a Brexit would […]
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